Jim Young/Reuters
VIRGINIA Cheers for a Mitt Romney visit on Monday in Fairfax.
The most expensive presidential race in American history now becomes the biggest show on television, a night with enough uncertainty that it could become a telethon lasting well into morning.
For the third time in the last four presidential campaigns, the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees went into Election Day close in the national polls, with not one of the major opinion surveys giving President Obama or Mitt Romney a lead of statistical significance.
But presidential races are decided in the states, and the nation will get an answer to the opposing cases for victory that each candidate has made for so many months. It will finally know, as one of Mr. Obama’s top aides has put it, “which side is bluffing” and whether battleground-state polls, which have given Mr. Obama a slim but consistent edge where it matters most, accurately foretold the outcome. As the night unfolds, clues to the outcome will spill out well before the votes are counted.
If exit polling indicates that Mr. Romney is substantially exceeding the share of the white vote that went to Senator John McCain four years ago, that will be a sign that he is replicating the coalition that gave President George W. Bush a second term. If Mr. Obama can win Virginia, a battleground with an early poll-closing time, Mr. Romney’s options for getting an Electoral College majority will be substantially reduced. And in Ohio, the vote in Hamilton County, which Mr. Obama and Mr. Bush both won, could signal who takes the state.
On Monday, Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama went on traditional last-day blitzes across the most important swing states, overlapping in the place that is expected to have the lead role in Tuesday’s drama, Ohio.
For Mr. Obama, it was the last day of campaigning in a career that took him in a few short years from the Illinois State Senate to the United States Senate and, finally, the White House. For Mr. Romney, it was to be the end of his seven-year quest for the presidency. But late Monday, his aides announced that he would make one last pass at Pennsylvania and Ohio, with stops in Pittsburgh and Cleveland on Tuesday.
Some Republicans said they believed the final push was needed given that Mr. Romney was going into Election Day without any of the top competitive states definitively in his column. A senior party strategist lamented that for all the optimistic signs, there was a preponderance of evidence “cutting against us.”
Democrats will be on high alert on Tuesday for what they consider attempts to suppress the vote, while Republicans make a case that strict voter identification rules and counting procedures be followed to guarantee the integrity of the outcome. Batteries of lawyers are standing by for both sides in the swing states, especially Ohio, where the skirmishing was already under way.
The rise of early voting across the country meant that even before Election Day, more than 30 million Americans had cast their ballots. Those results will be reported Tuesday night, providing a new element for viewers at home: many states will report initial results that encompass far more votes than ever before.
Now, as the campaigns say, it is all about turnout. But beyond the cliché, the main question is not only how many but also who.
Mr. Romney’s campaign built its theory of winning around the idea that turnout for Mr. Obama will fall well below his 2008 tally. The Obama campaign did not entirely disagree, but believes it has rebuilt his coalition of women, Hispanics, blacks and young voters just enough to win.
Here is a guide to what to look for as the night progresses to know who is up, who is down and whether, should there be delayed counts, recounts and court challenges, Election Day becomes Election Week or — gasp! — Month. (All times below are Eastern.)
At 7 p.m., when the voting ends in Virginia, an early clue to whether the night will be a long one or a short one may emerge. Both sides pursued the state’s 13 electoral votes tenaciously, but they are more central to the strategy of Mr. Romney, who made two stops there on Monday.
Political Memo: State by State, Battle for Presidency Goes to Voters
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Political Memo: State by State, Battle for Presidency Goes to Voters
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Political Memo: State by State, Battle for Presidency Goes to Voters
